Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 16.676057 20.203669 24.124764 28.782475 34.139270 40.081821 47.146443
2025-05-04 11.881132 16.543101 22.294271 29.802240 39.226787 50.542529 65.020997
2025-05-11 9.108410 14.168286 20.936182 30.415155 43.084436 59.153058 80.754333
2025-05-18 7.022443 12.083450 19.358668 30.184869 45.434802 65.660471 93.943046
2025-05-25 5.349965 10.159994 17.568061 29.230256 46.456976 70.226165 104.621567
2025-06-01 4.255642 8.863444 16.423242 28.937037 48.202822 75.699306 116.650780
2025-06-08 3.257939 7.481125 14.878731 27.760041 48.418361 78.884343 125.524377
2025-06-15 2.800776 6.969708 14.668845 28.621372 51.715812 86.635085 141.210821
2025-06-22 2.198396 6.018713 13.522212 27.752652 52.153963 90.078341 150.703778
2025-06-29 1.930767 5.703900 13.480283 28.750332 55.639573 98.293423 167.620386
2025-07-06 1.447618 4.763009 12.067810 27.104948 54.539542 99.245197 173.496226
2025-07-13 1.270482 4.515629 12.008568 27.940974 57.713457 107.107687 190.327797
2025-07-20 1.086790 4.229216 11.887241 28.778206 61.195931 116.054754 209.940378
2025-07-27 0.934405 3.986557 11.834260 29.772472 65.094084 126.002573 231.791530
2025-08-03 0.785401 3.696740 11.613592 30.383534 68.311941 134.957089 252.416161
2025-08-10 0.624138 3.294913 11.036128 30.153370 69.897743 141.175587 268.797242
2025-08-17 0.468570 2.829427 10.187323 29.199558 69.972370 144.725399 280.848178
2025-08-24 0.367361 2.515882 9.668170 28.906588 71.297981 150.511792 296.856527
2025-08-31 0.265436 2.125793 8.829272 27.730594 70.702514 152.763781 306.868160
2025-09-07 0.227916 2.023457 8.828871 28.591191 74.394754 163.029844 331.136192
2025-09-14 0.166537 1.739423 8.179394 27.723212 74.327442 166.276468 343.196686
2025-09-21 0.144788 1.675608 8.246141 28.720041 78.370961 177.450939 369.698873
2025-09-28 0.095727 1.369515 7.374922 27.076062 76.422777 177.048702 375.419122